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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Burton Albion.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Burton Albion 0-4 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.56 xG and Plymouth 1.18 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.47, drawn from 53/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 46% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 29%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 53%, Plymouth 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Plymouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 0.98 PPG, Plymouth 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights