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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Mansfield Town 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Mansfield Town 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.66 xG and Mansfield Town 1.24 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Mansfield Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 47% | Draw 24% | Mansfield Town 28%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Mansfield Town 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.02 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights