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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Burton Albion 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lincoln beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.10 xG and Lincoln 1.18 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Lincoln attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 34% | Draw 29% | Lincoln 38%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 55%, Lincoln 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lincoln's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.00 PPG, Lincoln 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Lincoln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights