🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Burton Albion 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Exeter City beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.92 xG and Exeter City 1.12 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Exeter City outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.69 / defence 1.24 against Exeter City attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 31% | Exeter City 40%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 48%, Exeter City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Exeter City's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights