Burton Albion 2-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bradford travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion in League One (matchday 39). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bradford stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bradford's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burton Albion at 1.20 PPG versus Bradford's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Burton Albion have won 1, Bradford 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Burton Albion 2–1 Bradford — a Burton Albion win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bradford in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus Bradford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 54% | Bradford 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.54 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.929 / defence 1.072 | Bradford attack 0.763 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.183. Bradford's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 84 games and Bradford's last 38.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 51% | Draw 26% | Bradford 24%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.98 | Draw 3.90 | Bradford 4.20. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Bradford | Competition: League One, matchday 39 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 51% | Draw 26% | Bradford 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Burton Albion 1.54 / Bradford 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.929 / def 1.072 | Bradford attack 0.763 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bradford xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Bradford FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Bradford kick off?
Burton Albion vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Bradford?
Burton Albion 2 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Burton Albion vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Bradford part of?
Burton Albion vs Bradford is a League One fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 51% chance of winning, Bradford a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Burton Albion and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Burton Albion vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.93) and Bradford's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 84 games and Bradford's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.90
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Bradford xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
19.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.97 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 84 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 22W 24D 38L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 41W 20D 23L from 84 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 42 home games (13W 9D 20L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 10W 13D 19L from their last 42 away games — 1.02 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.33 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Bradford in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 22W 24D 38L in their last 84 games (1.07 PPG), while Bradford have gone 41W 20D 23L in their last 84 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Bradford away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.14 PPG; Bradford away: 1.02 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bradford in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 20 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Burton Albion's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
1
Draws
0
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Bradford?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 2, Bradford have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 October 2026: Burton Albion 0-0 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Bradford?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Bradford 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Burton Albion) and 50% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games; Bradford in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 57% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Burton Albion's recent games and 50% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 74% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Bradford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Bradford 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.54 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Bradford attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 51% | Draw 26% | Bradford 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Bradford's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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