🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Bradford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Bradford 2-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.54 xG and Bradford 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Bradford attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 51% | Draw 26% | Bradford 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 54%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Bradford's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights