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Dominant Burton Albion run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burton Albion beat Bolton 3-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.95 xG and Bolton 1.19 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bolton landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.67 / defence 1.30 against Bolton attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 29% | Draw 29% | Bolton 41%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Bolton's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights