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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Burton Albion 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Burton Albion 1-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.30 xG and Bolton 1.43 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Bolton attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 81/80 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 33% | Draw 27% | Bolton 39%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 46%, Bolton 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Burton Albion's trading profile (81 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (81 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights