Bromley vs Burton Albion – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bromley vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bromley and Burton Albion meet at Hayes Lane in League One, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Bromley (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bromley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bromley's home record at Hayes Lane: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Bromley are significantly better at Hayes Lane than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burton Albion are 0.50 PPG clear of Bromley in recent League One fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Bromley half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bromley 59% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bromley 54% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bromley 1.00 xG and Burton Albion 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bromley attack 0.641 / defence 1.526 | Burton Albion attack 0.777 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.262. Bromley's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Bromley games / 60 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bromley 24% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 47%. Fair-value odds: Bromley 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 2.13. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Bromley 50% | Burton Albion 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bromley vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Hayes Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bromley 24% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Bromley 1.00 / Burton Albion 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bromley attack 0.641 / def 1.526 | Burton Albion attack 0.777 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bromley xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Burton Albion xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bromley vs Burton Albion kick off?
Bromley vs Burton Albion is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Hayes Lane.
Where is Bromley vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Hayes Lane.
What competition is Bromley vs Burton Albion part of?
Bromley vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bromley vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Bromley a 24% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bromley vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bromley and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Bromley vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bromley and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bromley and Burton Albion in?
Bromley (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bromley's attack rating (0.64) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.78x) against Bromley's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 13/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
24%
4.25
29%
3.39
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bromley xG
Total xG
2.49
1.50
Burton Albion xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
5%
18.97
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bromley vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bromley and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bromley and 1.50 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bromley vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Bromley have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 26W 18D 15L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bromley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 16W 20D 23L from 59 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bromley are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bromley have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (15W 11D 3L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 6W 11D 12L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bromley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bromley are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bromley
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bromley and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Bromley have gone 26W 18D 15L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 16W 20D 23L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bromley at home or Burton Albion away?
Bromley's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bromley at home: 1.93 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bromley 62%, Burton Albion 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Bromley) and 48% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bromley home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bromley play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bromley's games and 52% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bromley vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Bromley's recent games and 48% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bromley and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Bromley have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.