🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bristol Rovers and Wrexham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Bristol Rovers and Wrexham drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 0.82 xG and Wrexham 0.90 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Wrexham attack 0.76 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 31% | Draw 34% | Wrexham 35%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 48%, Wrexham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights