Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Bristol Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town finished level at 0-0 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.48 xG and Crawley Town 0.74 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bristol Rovers fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Crawley Town attack 0.60 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 55% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 19%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 50%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bristol Rovers's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crawley Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.23 PPG, Crawley Town 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights