Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bristol Rovers's attack at 0.90x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.60x) against Bristol Rovers's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 60/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol Rovers Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.78
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bristol Rovers xG
Total xG
2.22
0.74
Crawley Town xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bristol Rovers and 0.74 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.