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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Stockport County 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Stockport County 1-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.02 xG and Stockport County 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Stockport County attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 30/76 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 32%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stockport County's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.71 PPG, Stockport County 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights