Bradford 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Valley Parade plays host to Bradford versus Rotherham in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Bradford (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bradford have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bradford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rotherham's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Rotherham's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Bradford. A 0.50 PPG lead over Rotherham (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Bradford, 0 for Rotherham and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2025, ended Bradford 2–2 Rotherham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rotherham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 53% versus Rotherham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 49% | Rotherham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.31 xG and Rotherham 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.895 / defence 0.741 | Rotherham attack 0.920 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.150. Bradford have a tight defence (rating 0.741), which is pulling Rotherham's projected output down. Data: built from Bradford's last 32 games and Rotherham's last 77.
Result probabilities: Bradford 49% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 22%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.04 | Draw 3.49 | Rotherham 4.47. Bradford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bradford at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bradford's last 10 home games and Rotherham's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bradford 30% (last 10 home games) | Rotherham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 49% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Bradford 1.31 / Rotherham 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.895 / def 0.741 | Rotherham attack 0.920 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Bradford (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Rotherham xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Rotherham FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Rotherham kick off?
Bradford vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Rotherham?
Bradford 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Bradford vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Rotherham part of?
Bradford vs Rotherham is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 49% chance of winning, Rotherham a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bradford and Rotherham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Bradford vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bradford's attack rating (0.90) and Rotherham's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.92x) against Bradford's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 32 games and Rotherham's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.49
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.09
0.78
Rotherham xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Rotherham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bradford and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bradford and 0.78 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 77 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 37W 19D 21L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Rotherham's form line: 24W 18D 35L from 77 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rotherham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bradford have posted 2.42 PPG from their last 38 home games (29W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rotherham have gone 8W 8D 22L from their last 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bradford are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
Bradford (Home) vs Rotherham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Bradford vs Rotherham Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 37W 19D 21L in their last 77 games (1.69 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 24W 18D 35L in their last 77 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Rotherham away?
Bradford's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.42 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Bradford or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Rotherham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Bradford and Rotherham, the earliest from October 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bradford
1
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Rotherham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Rotherham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 1, Rotherham have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bradford and Rotherham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Bradford 1-0 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Rotherham?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 50%, Rotherham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bradford) and 37% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Rotherham in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Rotherham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Rotherham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bradford's recent matches and 40% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bradford and Rotherham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bradford's recent games and 37% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Rotherham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bradford's recent matches and 71% of Rotherham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Rotherham 1-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.31 xG and Rotherham 0.78 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.90 / defence 0.74 against Rotherham attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 49% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 22%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 49%, Rotherham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rotherham's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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