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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bradford cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Peterborough.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Peterborough 2-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.18 xG and Peterborough 1.12 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 29/77 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 34%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 51%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights