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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Exeter City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bradford beat Exeter City 1-0 at Valley Parade, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.25 xG and Exeter City 0.93 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Exeter City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Exeter City attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 44% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 28%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Exeter City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Exeter City's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights