🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bradford at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bradford host Exeter City at Valley Parade in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bradford's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Valley Parade this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bradford are significantly better at Valley Parade than their overall form suggests.

Exeter City — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Exeter City's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Bradford are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bradford, 1 for Exeter City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Exeter City winning.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Bradford in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Exeter City in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 58% versus Exeter City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 50% | Exeter City 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.25 xG and Exeter City 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.006 / defence 1.122 | Exeter City attack 0.778 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.070. Data: 16 Bradford games / 62 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bradford 44% | Draw 29% | Exeter City 28%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Exeter City 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bradford 70% | Exeter City 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights