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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Bradford 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Bradford 0-1 at Valley Parade, Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.03 xG and Bolton 0.93 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bradford fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Bolton attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bradford's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Bolton's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bradford 1.67 PPG, Bolton 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights