🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bolton and Stockport County share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton and Stockport County finished level at 2-2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.54 xG and Stockport County 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stockport County outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 50% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 25%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Stockport County 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stockport County's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.59 PPG, Stockport County 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights