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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bolton run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Stevenage.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Stevenage 5-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.40 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Stevenage attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.55 PPG, Stevenage 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights