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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 46, as Bolton and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.19 xG and Stevenage 0.90 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Stevenage attack 0.69 / defence 0.88, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 42% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 27%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 55%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Stevenage's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.63 PPG, Stevenage 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights