🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Rotherham 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Rotherham 2-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.48 xG and Rotherham 0.62 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.25 / defence 0.75 against Rotherham attack 0.71 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 58% | Draw 26% | Rotherham 16%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 53%, Rotherham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Rotherham's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.55 PPG, Rotherham 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights