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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bolton run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Port Vale.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Port Vale 4-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.38 xG and Port Vale 0.73 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.25 / defence 0.83 against Port Vale attack 0.83 / defence 0.85, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 52% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 20%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 53%, Port Vale 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Port Vale's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.52 PPG, Port Vale 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights