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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Plymouth 2-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.54 xG and Plymouth 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Plymouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 50% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 57%, Plymouth 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights