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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Peterborough 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Peterborough 2-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.10 xG and Peterborough 0.84 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.24 / defence 0.83 against Peterborough attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 66% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 14%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Peterborough's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights