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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Northampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Northampton 3-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.65 xG and Northampton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against Northampton attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 51% | Draw 25% | Northampton 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 55%, Northampton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Northampton's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights