Bolton 3-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bolton at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 29 as Bolton welcome Northampton to Toughsheet Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's home record at Toughsheet Community Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bolton are significantly better at Toughsheet Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Bolton) versus 0.90 (Northampton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bolton have won 2, Northampton 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 4–2 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bolton in-play and half-time data (73 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Northampton in-play and half-time data (73 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 55% versus Northampton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 55% | Northampton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.65 xG and Northampton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.146 / defence 1.178 | Northampton attack 0.758 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Data: 73 Bolton games / 73 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 51% | Draw 25% | Northampton 24%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Northampton 4.17. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 70% | Northampton 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 51% | Draw 25% | Northampton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Bolton 1.65 / Northampton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.146 / def 1.178 | Northampton attack 0.758 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Bolton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Northampton xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Northampton kick off?
Bolton vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Northampton?
Bolton 3 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Bolton vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Northampton part of?
Bolton vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 51% chance of winning, Northampton a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bolton and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Northampton?
Record (3 meetings): Bolton 2W | Draws 1 | Northampton 0W.
What form are Bolton and Northampton in?
Bolton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Northampton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bolton's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.04
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.69
1.04
Northampton xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bolton and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bolton and 1.04 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bolton come into this having played 73 games, going 35W 17D 21L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 1.19 PPG from 73 outings (23W 18D 32L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Northampton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bolton's home form reads 19W 8D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Northampton have taken 0.92 points per game from 37 outings (8W 10D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.11 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Northampton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 35W 17D 21L in their last 73 games (1.67 PPG), while Northampton have gone 23W 18D 32L in their last 73 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Northampton away?
Bolton's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.76 PPG; Northampton away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and Northampton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bolton
2
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Bolton have won 3, Northampton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Bolton 0-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Northampton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 60%, Northampton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Bolton) and 51% (Northampton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Northampton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Northampton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bolton's games and 57% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bolton vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Bolton's matches and 51% of Northampton's.
Do Bolton and Northampton tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Northampton in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Northampton 3-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.65 xG and Northampton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against Northampton attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 51% | Draw 25% | Northampton 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 55%, Northampton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.