Bolton vs Mansfield Town – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mansfield Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Mansfield Town 3-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.29 xG and Mansfield Town 1.17 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.07 / defence 1.12 against Mansfield Town attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 39% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 34%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 51%, Mansfield Town 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Mansfield Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.77 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights