Bolton vs Mansfield Town – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bolton's attack at 1.07x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.93x) against Bolton's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 62/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.68
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.46
1.17
Mansfield Town xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bolton and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bolton and 1.17 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.