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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.33 xG and Lincoln 0.92 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Lincoln attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 46% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 26%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Lincoln 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Lincoln's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.46 PPG, Lincoln 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights