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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Crawley Town 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Crawley Town 4-3 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.26 xG and Crawley Town 1.12 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.21 / defence 1.17 against Crawley Town attack 0.81 / defence 1.44, drawn from 75/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 63% | Draw 19% | Crawley Town 18%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 55%, Crawley Town 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Crawley Town's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.68 PPG, Crawley Town 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights