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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Cardiff 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Cardiff 1-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.26 xG and Cardiff 0.87 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.26 / defence 0.87 against Cardiff attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 59/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 45% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 26%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 53%, Cardiff 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Cardiff's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.47 PPG, Cardiff 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights