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Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Burton Albion 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.60 xG and Burton Albion 0.73 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Burton Albion attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 74/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 58% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 17%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 51%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Burton Albion's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights