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Stalemate at Bolton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Bolton and Bradford drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.89 xG and Bradford 0.89 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bolton fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Bradford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against Bradford attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 61% | Draw 22% | Bradford 17%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 54%, Bradford 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bradford's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.54 PPG, Bradford 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights