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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bolton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Birmingham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat Birmingham 3-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.29 xG and Birmingham 1.44 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.31 / defence 1.19 against Birmingham attack 1.01 / defence 0.77, drawn from 79/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 33% | Draw 26% | Birmingham 40%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 55%, Birmingham 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Birmingham's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.73 PPG, Birmingham 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights