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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

League One · Regular Season - 35

Kick-off

Tue 4 Mar 2025

19:45

Venue

Toughsheet Community Stadium

Competition

League One

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Birmingham Win

33%

Bolton

2.99

26%

Draw

3.78

40%

Birmingham

2.49

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.4%

Away win

1 – 2

8.7%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.29

Bolton xG

Total xG

2.73

1.44

Birmingham xG

33%
26%
40%
BoltonDrawBirmingham

2.99

33%

Home win

3.78

26%

Draw

2.49

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

24%

Bolton

4.20

27%

Birmingham

3.64

Win to Nil

8%

Bolton

12.56

11%

Birmingham

9.08

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.5 9.4 6.7 3.2 1.2 0.3
1 8.4 12.1 8.7 4.2 1.5 0.4
2 5.5 7.8 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.3
3 2.3 3.4 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.292
λ Away (xG) 1.436
Total xG 2.728
League avg home goals 1.286
League avg away goals 1.186
Bolton attack strength 1.313
Bolton defence strength 1.194
Birmingham attack strength 1.014
Birmingham defence strength 0.765
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 79 / 32