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Dominant Bolton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bolton beat AFC Wimbledon 3-0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.58 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.98 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.00 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bolton 51% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, AFC Wimbledon 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bolton's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bolton 1.44 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights