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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Stalemate at Birmingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Birmingham and Crawley Town finished level at 0-0 at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 3.24 xG and Crawley Town 0.90 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Birmingham fell 3.2 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.49 / defence 0.73 against Crawley Town attack 1.09 / defence 1.71, drawn from 40/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Birmingham 82% | Draw 11% | Crawley Town 7%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 82%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 44%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Birmingham's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crawley Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights