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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Barnsley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port Vale beat Barnsley 0-2 at Oakwell, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 1.60 xG and Port Vale 1.01 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Barnsley fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 1.28 / defence 1.20 against Port Vale attack 0.79 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barnsley 51% | Draw 25% | Port Vale 24%, with Barnsley to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 67%, Port Vale 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnsley's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Port Vale's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barnsley 1.43 PPG, Port Vale 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Barnsley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights