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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Barnsley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Barnsley 0-3 at Oakwell, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 1.29 xG and Plymouth 1.83 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Barnsley fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Plymouth attack 1.37 / defence 0.89, drawn from 84/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barnsley 27% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 50%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 67%, Plymouth 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnsley's trading profile (84 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (84 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barnsley 1.33 PPG, Plymouth 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Barnsley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights