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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Barnsley run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crawley Town.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barnsley beat Crawley Town 3-0 at Oakwell, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 2.00 xG and Crawley Town 1.47 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Barnsley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 1.04 / defence 1.30 against Crawley Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.51, drawn from 70/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barnsley 50% | Draw 22% | Crawley Town 28%, with Barnsley to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 68%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnsley's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Crawley Town's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barnsley 1.62 PPG, Crawley Town 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barnsley win broke the near-deadlock. Barnsley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights