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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Barnsley and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Oakwell, Regular Season - 3, as Barnsley and Bolton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 1.76 xG and Bolton 1.23 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 1.18 / defence 1.22 against Bolton attack 0.93 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Barnsley 49% | Draw 24% | Bolton 26%, with Barnsley to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 71%, Bolton 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnsley's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barnsley 1.40 PPG, Bolton 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights