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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Barnsley run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bolton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Barnsley beat Bolton 4-1 at Oakwell, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Barnsley 1.31 xG and Bolton 1.62 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Barnsley beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barnsley attack 0.96 / defence 1.36 against Bolton attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Barnsley 31% | Draw 24% | Bolton 45%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Barnsley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barnsley 67%, Bolton 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Barnsley's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Bolton's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Barnsley 1.49 PPG, Bolton 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barnsley win broke the near-deadlock. Barnsley (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights