🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AFC Wimbledon and Port Vale share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AFC Wimbledon and Port Vale finished level at 1-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.13 xG and Port Vale 0.89 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 0.79, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 41% | Draw 30% | Port Vale 29%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 35%, Port Vale 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Port Vale's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.70 PPG, Port Vale 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights