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Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Swansea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Swansea 2-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.81 xG and Swansea 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Swansea landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.24 / defence 1.29 against Swansea attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 36/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 48% | Draw 25% | Swansea 27%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 46%, Swansea 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Swansea's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights