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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wrexham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stoke City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Stoke City 2-0 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.60 xG and Stoke City 1.16 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stoke City landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.17 / defence 1.44 against Stoke City attack 0.70 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/88 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 46% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 26%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 48%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Stoke City's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Wrexham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights