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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wrexham and Middlesbrough share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham and Middlesbrough finished level at 2-2 at Racecourse Ground, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.49 xG and Middlesbrough 2.03 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.16 / defence 1.31 against Middlesbrough attack 1.29 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wrexham 27% | Draw 24% | Middlesbrough 49%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 47%, Middlesbrough 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wrexham's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.78 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights