Wrexham vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Racecourse Ground to face Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wrexham have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Racecourse Ground this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Wrexham, 0.80 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wrexham have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Derby in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wrexham lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Wrexham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wrexham — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Derby — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wrexham 65% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 50% | Derby 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.38 xG and Derby 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 0.927 / defence 1.104 | Derby attack 0.950 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Data: 54 Wrexham games / 54 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 36% | Draw 30% | Derby 34%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 80% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 36% | Draw 30% | Derby 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Wrexham 1.38 / Derby 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 0.927 / def 1.104 | Derby attack 0.950 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derby xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Derby kick off?
Wrexham vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Racecourse Ground.
Where is Wrexham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Derby part of?
Wrexham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 36% chance of winning, Derby a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wrexham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Derby in?
Wrexham (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 0.93x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.95x) against Wrexham's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.36
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.69
1.32
Derby xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.32 for Derby, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 18D 15L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 11D 22L from 54 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Wrexham against 1.37 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 4D 12L from 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wrexham are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wrexham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Derby in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Derby in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 21W 18D 15L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Derby away?
Wrexham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 1.56 PPG; Derby away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wrexham
1
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Derby have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Derby 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Derby?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Wrexham, 63% for Derby — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Wrexham) and 63% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Wrexham's games and 63% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Wrexham's matches and 63% of Derby's.
Do Wrexham and Derby tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Derby in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.