Wrexham vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wrexham vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derby make the trip to Racecourse Ground to face Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wrexham have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Racecourse Ground this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Derby have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Wrexham's favour (1.30 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Wrexham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Derby in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wrexham lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wrexham — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Derby — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wrexham 67% and Derby 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 51% | Derby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.93 xG and Derby 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.100 / defence 1.105 | Derby attack 0.913 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Wrexham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Wrexham games / 57 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 52% | Draw 22% | Derby 26%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Derby 3.85. Wrexham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 80% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Racecourse Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 52% | Draw 22% | Derby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Wrexham 1.93 / Derby 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.100 / def 1.105 | Derby attack 0.913 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derby xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Derby kick off?
Wrexham vs Derby is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Racecourse Ground.
Where is Wrexham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Racecourse Ground.
What competition is Wrexham vs Derby part of?
Wrexham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 52% chance of winning, Derby a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Wrexham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 2 | Derby 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Derby in?
Wrexham (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.10x the league average against Derby's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Wrexham's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.52
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.25
1.32
Derby xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
4%
26.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.32 for Derby, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 22W 19D 16L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Wrexham against 1.32 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L).
On the road, Derby have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wrexham are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.33 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wrexham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Derby in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Derby in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 22W 19D 16L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Derby away?
Wrexham's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 1.61 PPG; Derby away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Wrexham
2
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Derby?
From 3 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 1, Derby have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Derby 1-1 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Derby?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Wrexham, 64% for Derby — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Wrexham and 64% for Derby. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Wrexham's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Wrexham's matches and 64% of Derby's.
Do Wrexham and Derby tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Derby in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.