Wigan 0-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stoke City at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Stoke City meet at DW Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 2 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wigan have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stoke City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Wigan, 1.10 for Stoke City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Stoke City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 62% versus Stoke City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 52% | Stoke City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 0.76 xG and Stoke City 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.609 / defence 1.494 | Stoke City attack 1.058 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.104. Wigan's attack strength of 0.609 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Wigan games / 63 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 16% | Draw 23% | Stoke City 61%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Stoke City 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Stoke City (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stoke City at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Wigan 60% | Stoke City 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 16% | Draw 23% | Stoke City 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Wigan 0.76 / Stoke City 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.609 / def 1.494 | Stoke City attack 1.058 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Stoke City xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Stoke City kick off?
Wigan vs Stoke City kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 2 November 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Stoke City?
Wigan 0 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Wigan vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Stoke City part of?
Wigan vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 16% chance of winning, Stoke City a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wigan and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stoke City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wigan and Stoke City in?
Wigan (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Stoke City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wigan's attack rating (0.61) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (1.06x) against Wigan's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 17/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
16%
6.31
23%
4.32
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.50
1.75
Stoke City xG
6.31
16%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
3%
36.13
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wigan and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Wigan and 1.75 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Stoke City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Wigan have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 32W 15D 16L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stoke City's form line: 22W 15D 26L from 63 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stoke City.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, Stoke City have gone 10W 8D 14L from 32 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.19 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 32W 15D 16L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Stoke City away?
Wigan's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.56 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Wigan or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stoke City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Wigan
0
Draws
1
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Stoke City?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 1, Stoke City have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Stoke City 0-1 Wigan.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 59%, Stoke City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wigan) and 50% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Stoke City in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Stoke City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Wigan's games and 56% of Stoke City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wigan's recent games and 50% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Stoke City tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stoke City edge out Wigan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Wigan 0-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 0.76 xG and Stoke City 1.75 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.61 / defence 1.49 against Stoke City attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 16% | Draw 23% | Stoke City 61%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 52%, Stoke City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Stoke City's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Stoke City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.